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Will Bitcoin Reach $100k?

At the average rate of growth on Bitcoin since 2014 at 135% APY, the asset will see $100k per coin as early as January 2025.


What would be the major drivers to drive Bitcoin price?


ETF Inflows

While ETFs only recently saw approvals, many asset managers have indicated that it could be a matter of months or even years before we see a really meaningful volume of inflows generated from these ETFs. As of June 30th, 2023, private assets under management make up $13 trillion with total assets under management globally near $100 trillion. By comparison Bitcoin's market cap as of 2/28/24 sits at $1.2 trillion.

Is it reasonable to think that even one percent of global assets under management can find its way into Bitcoin? It's not a sure shot, but with Bitcoin at today's price of $62k, it would take north of $700 billion of inflows to reach this milestone. As a speculative asset treated as a hedge against tradFi, that is a palatable reality. As an asset that may drive the future infrastructure of money, that's a shoe-in.


Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin halving event is built as a mechanism to support BTC as a deflationary asset thus restricting overall supply. The halving event is scheduled for April 2024. History has demonstrated bullish price action around halving events.


Bitcoin halving history
Source: Glassnode, as of 2/6/2024,

What is Bitcoin halving?

This is a feature native to Bitcoin that reduces the supply of coins that can be mined as a proof-of-work asset. A halving event occurs every four years which effectively gives it deflationary behavior.


Bitcoin halving schedule

Summary

There is a very reasonable chance for Bitcoin to see prices north of $100k within the year. There are a lot of macro factors needed to support this, and there is also a notion of irrational exuberance that can drive this event faster than we may expect.

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